There’s still a lot of excitement for Kamala Harris’ nascent presidential campaign nationally.
But on this day, with Gov. Josh Shapiro consigned to the position of also-ran in the selection of Harris’ running mate, it was hard not to feel the air coming out of the balloon among some Pennsylvania Democrats.
It’s certainly not a permanent thumbs-down on What they are feeling right now is more the instant disappointment that comes from a sudden, very public loss, like say being selected first runner-up in the Miss America pageant.
That said, here’s a first edition look at why Shapiro, considered one of the front-runners in the veepstakes, this strangest of all political contests, didn’t end up with the crown.
One close observer of California politics, who asked not to be identified for this story because of her current position, said Walz’s selection probably boils down to one thing: He creates the least undertow against the wave of Democratic unity that’s been building since President Joe Biden’s decision to abandon his re-election bid.
The Democrats have, in recent years, had a serious internal conflict between centrists — like former President Bill Clinton and former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell in years past — who are willing to sometimes compromise on principles and make deals in order to make incremental progress and appeal to as many people as possible, and progressives who believe the party is best served by taking a harder line that voters will ultimately see as a clear and, they hope, better alternative to the Republican Party.
That internal tug-of-war, some say, momentarily stopped after Biden’s withdrawal.
Harris’ overriding goal in this situation, our Californian source said, was to “choose someone who is going to cause the least amount of conflict within the party.”
Shapiro was seen as having the potential to reopen those rifts, mostly because of his positions in the last two years and on the Israel / Hamas war.
Consider this Sunday social media post from Pennsylvania state Rep. Emily Kinkead, an Allegheny County Democrat, who gave this blunt assessment of Shapiro:
“The fact that he has no record to run on, supports vouchers, covered up sexual harassment and is the world’s most thin-skinned politician do not make him a strong VP. Also, I cannot imagine that man being comfortable playing second fiddle to anyone, let alone a Black woman. There are soooooooooooooooo many better options. Please god, let Kamala recognize that.”
School choice is anathema to teacher’s unions and — by extension, their public sector union allies — and they were vocal about their concerns, never mind the fact that Shapiro was also the governor who signed off on one of the most lucrative contracts in state history for Pennsylvania’s state workforce, and the biggest increases in public school funding ever.
The veepstakes also drew renewed criticisms of last year, and fresh questions about the handling of
The Middle East
But the biggest issue right now, argued Ron Fournier, a former national political writer for The Associated Press, was likely the tensions over the situation in Gaza.
Most American politicians, like Shapiro, have spent their careers resolutely supporting Israel. But in this particular war, there has been a loud and aggressive pushback from some Democrats outraged over the massive loss of civilian Palestinian lives during Israel’s war with Hamas.
Those factions believe that Shapiro, in the past 10 months since the bloody Hamas-led incursion inside Israel triggered the latest fighting, hasn’t been empathetic enough about Palestinian rights, and
Because of those perceptions, Fournier said, Shapiro could have seriously hurt the Democratic ticket in Michigan, a 15 electoral college vote state with the largest population of Arab-American voters in the country.
“That population right now is angrier than hell,” Fournier said. “They understand that Israel has a right to defend itself like every country has a right; but they don’t have a right to defend themselves in the way that they have, is the Palestinians’ view. They see what is happening there as genocide.”
Add it all up, and various progressives made the case that Shapiro’s selection ran the risk, as The New York Times put it Monday, of “significantly depressing enthusiasm for the Harris ticket among key constituencies of young voters, Arab and Muslim voters, and to some degree labor.”
In Michigan in particular, Fournier said, “him being so closely aligned to Biden at a time when Harris is distancing herself from Biden on Gaza would have cause a problem. Would it have been enough to cost Michigan? I don’t know.
“But when the number one rule in picking the VP is do no harm, there would be some logic in saying Walz is the safer pick,” he said.
The Rust Belt
Walz’s allies say he doesn’t stir those waters nearly as much, and can still broadly help the Democratic ticket in other critical Rust Belt states — Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — that are home to many of the same types of voters he’s won over in Minnesota.
Why is that?
Supporters have pointed to Walz’s lived experiences before his political career – as a 10-year high school teacher, football coach and 20-year National Guardsman – that make him very relatable to the average Jane and Joe.
“He speaks farm, suburban and urban,” Rep. Betty McCollum, D-Minn., who Harris to select Walz, joked to the politics news outlet Politico last week.
She and others also noted that Walz has not been reluctant to go on Fox 첥Ƶ to reach more conservative voters.
“He helps with the white, especially male voter that’s been turning away from Democrats that Harris has to get a slice of (in the so-called Blue Wall midwestern states) in a way that no other candidate would have, including Shapiro,” Fournier agreed. “Some of her advisers had that logic.”
Shapiro had strengths
from the start.
As a white man from the East Coast who is also Jewish, he brought automatic demographic balance to a presidential ticket headed by a woman of color; Harris, a former California Attorney General and U.S. Senator who is the daughter of immigrants from India and Jamaica.
He won the biggest swing state by large margins, and remains pretty popular judging from the most recent job approval ratings. Shapiro had a job approval rating of 54% , the highest logged by any governor at that point in his term since the tracking poll started in the mid-1990s.
He tends to play for the middle politically, which could help in an election where the votes of independents and moderates in a handful of swing states are key.
Shapiro also seemed to have had an edge in the pre-existing relationship department.
Shapiro has had an 18-year friendship with Harris dating to their 2006 selection to a fellowship for young political leaders run by the Aspen Institute, and the two have had an ongoing, if mostly distant, relationship ever since.
But in the end, Walz won in the all-important “do no harm” category.
What’s next?
Some Shapiro supporters reached Tuesday said they believe the governor will grow from this experience.
For example, one Democratic consultant who asked not to be identified in order to offer his frank assessment said he felt that Shapiro and his team seemed to be caught flat-footed by the criticisms that emerged.
That could have been borne out of the tradition of trying to stay silent about one’s own vice-presidential ambitions, and the surprise nature of this particular selection.
But still, our source argued that “if you’re a front-runner, you’ve got to be able to defend against these things … These challenges were clearly coming down the pike, and he didn’t necessarily outmaneuver them.”
In this case, that could have been done he said, by getting more surrogates to speak out in Shapiro’s defense.
Team Shapiro, he said, will likely be better prepared the next time.
In Pennsylvania, leading Republicans were only to happy to pile on Shapiro Tuesday morning.
Take this, from Senate President Pro Tempore Kim Ward, who has emerged as one of Shapiro’s harshest critics in the state legislature:
“It would have been difficult to pick Shapiro as a running mate because up until now, he has never been truly vetted, and some troubling issues have come to light since the national media has been doing a deep dive.”
Still, at age 51, this is far from the end of the line for Shapiro’s national aspirations.
In the short-term, he could become a candidate for a cabinet position in a potential Harris administration. Longer-term, if he wants, he could be a part of the party’s presidential conversation in 2028, 2032 and beyond, depending on the circumstances of the time.
“It’s a win, just even being one of two, one of three or one of five (VP candidates),” state Sen. Vincent Hughes, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Appropriations Committee, argued. “Josh Shapiro’s profile is far greater now for having gone through this experience.”
He’ll reset on a new, albeit potentially longer-term track later Tuesday, when Philadelphia plays host to the first stop of the new Harris-Walz ticket’s upcoming tour of battleground states.
PennLive Capitol Bureau Chief Jan Murphy contributed to this report.
Shapiro statement
Shapiro was gracious on Tuesday after losing the veepstakes, releasing this message:
My life in public service has always been motivated by my family and my faith. Since I first ran for State Representative 20 years ago, I’ve been called to serve because I want to leave our community, our Commonwealth, and our country better off for our children — and because my faith teaches me that no one is required to complete the task, but neither are we free to refrain from it.
“Nearly two weeks ago, Vice President Harris asked me to work with her team to complete the vetting process to be considered as her running mate — and following those conversations, on Sunday, I was grateful to have the opportunity to speak with the Vice President directly about her vision for the role and the campaign ahead.
“As I’ve said repeatedly over the past several weeks, the running mate decision was a deeply personal decision for the Vice President — and it was also a deeply personal decision for me. Pennsylvanians elected me to a four-year term as their Governor, and my work here is far from finished — there is a lot more stuff I want to get done for the good people of this Commonwealth.
“Serving as the 48th Governor of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is the highest honor of my life — showing up in your communities, listening to and learning from you, and then working across the aisle to get stuff done and deliver results for you. In just 19 months, we’ve made a meaningful, positive impact in peoples’ lives, and I’m proud of how Americans all across the country have taken notice of what we’re accomplishing here in Pennsylvania. I’m excited to continue working to protect and advance real freedom, deliver good schools, safe communities, and economic opportunity.”
“Vice President Kamala Harris has my enthusiastic support — and I know that Gov. Tim Walz is an exceptionally strong addition to the ticket who will help Kamala move our country forward. Lori and I consider Tim and Gwen to be good friends of ours and we are excited for them and for the country to get to know the great people we know them to be.
“Over the next 92 days, I look forward to traveling all across the Commonwealth to unite Pennsylvanians behind Kamala Harris’ campaign to defeat Donald Trump, become the 47th President of the United States, and build a better future for our country.”
